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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model