Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Giants 14

(5:53) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to NYG 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 43-B.Rainey to NYG 30 for 15 yards (33-R.Burkhead, 57-V.Rey).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.02 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model