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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 94

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to NYG 44, Center-46-C.Harris. 43-B.Rainey pushed ob at CIN 47 for 9 yards (57-V.Rey).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth -0.08 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model