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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 46

New York Giants 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to CIN 9, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.72 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP