Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 75

New York Giants 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(7:44) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to CIN 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.79 EP
60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model