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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 70

New York Giants 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to CIN 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 24 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.68 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model