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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CLE 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -1.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 93, worth -5.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.69 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 51, worth -3.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP