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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Thursday 2016-11-10 · 20:25 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

CLE
49.4%
BAL
50.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.074 vs Cody Kessler (CLE) +0.121 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.169 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CLE

Jamar Taylor CB Out Groin

BAL

Kamalei Correa LB Out Thigh
Elvis Dumervil LB Out Foot
Crockett Gillmore TE Out Thigh
Shareece Wright CB Out Thigh
Marshal Yanda G Doubtful Shoulder
Kenneth Dixon RB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 7
–
BAL 28

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:33 FG BAL (10:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 06:36 TD CLE (6:36) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep right to 87-S.DeValve for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG BAL (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CLE 7 – BAL 6
  • Q3 09:41 TD BAL (9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 84-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-72-A.Lewis was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. CLE 7 – BAL 12
  • Q3 02:10 TD BAL (2:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 89-S.Smith for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-53-J.Zuttah was injured during the play. CLE 7 – BAL 19
  • Q4 06:30 TD BAL (6:30) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 18-B.Perriman for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 7 – BAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 17 for -3 yards (10-C.Moore).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to BAL 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Hester to BAL 32 for 16 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 37%

    (7:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 93
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to CLE 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (10:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (3:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 15 for 1 yard (84-D.Waller).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:45) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-L.Webb pushed ob at BAL 41 for 10 yards (24-I.Campbell). PENALTY on BAL-91-M.Judon, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:41) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to BAL 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to CLE 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-39-E.Reynolds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 20 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 52%

    (4:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 99 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:17) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BAL 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Hester to CLE 41 for 11 yards (26-M.Burley).