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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CLE 14, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 15 for 1 yard (84-D.Waller).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model