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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 17 for -3 yards (10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model