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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(13:41) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to BAL 36, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model