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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP