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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 99

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 28

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to BAL 48, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Hester to CLE 41 for 11 yards (26-M.Burley).

The Three Options

GO -3.71 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.70 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 99, worth -6.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 53, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model