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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:54) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to BAL 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-D.Hester to BAL 32 for 16 yards (20-B.Boddy-Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.12 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 28, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model