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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:07) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model