Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(4:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to BAL 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.32 EP
69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model