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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(14:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DAL 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 40 for 5 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.66 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model