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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DAL
63.4%
PIT
36.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.327 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 27
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DAL

Barry Church S Out Forearm
Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Chaz Green T Questionable Foot
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Knee
Ryan Davis DE Questionable Hamstring
Ronald Leary G Questionable Concussion
Tony Romo QB Questionable Back
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

PIT

Jordan Dangerfield S Out Groin
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR Out Foot
Markus Wheaton WR Out Shoulder
DeAngelo Williams RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 35
–
PIT 30

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:57 TD PIT (9:57) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 26-L.Bell for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 05:20 FG DAL (5:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – PIT 6
  • Q1 01:18 TD PIT (1:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 17-E.Rogers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 3 – PIT 12
  • Q1 00:27 TD DAL (:27) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – PIT 12
  • Q2 11:09 FG DAL (11:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 13 – PIT 12
  • Q2 04:47 FG PIT (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. DAL 13 – PIT 15
  • Q3 13:14 FG PIT (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. DAL 13 – PIT 18
  • Q3 05:39 FG DAL (5:39) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 16 – PIT 18
  • Q3 01:43 TD DAL (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 88-D.Bryant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 22 – PIT 18
  • Q4 07:56 TD PIT (7:56) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 26-L.Bell right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 23 – PIT 24
  • Q4 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – PIT 24
  • Q4 00:43 TD PIT (:43) (No Huddle) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – PIT 30
  • Q4 00:15 TD DAL (:15) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 35 – PIT 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (5:20) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:38) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to DAL 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 40 for 5 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 55-A.Moats).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 62%

    (11:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:17) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to PIT 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 41%

    (:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to DAL 16, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:27) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PIT 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (13:14) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 17 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (5:39) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to DAL 12, Center-60-G.Warren. 13-L.Whitehead to PIT 49 for 39 yards (45-R.Nix).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:17) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to DAL 11, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (11:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to PIT 32, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at DAL 46 for 22 yards (6-C.Jones).