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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 35

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.73 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP