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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to DAL 16, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.58 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model