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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 31

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 8-N.Novak 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.08 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model