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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

HOU
44.1%
JAX
55.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • HOU on 7 more days rest than JAX
  • JAX offense: -0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.056 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.082 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20
–
JAX 21
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

HOU

Lonnie Ballentine S Out groin, knee, ankle
Jaelen Strong WR Out Ankle
Jonathan Grimes RB Questionable Illness
Brian Peters LB Questionable Quadricep
Vince Wilfork DT Questionable Groin
A.J. Bouye CB Questionable Ankle
Will Fuller WR Questionable Knee

JAX

Bryan Walters WR Out Concussion
Chris Smith DE Questionable Eye
Arthur Brown LB Questionable Ankle
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Hamstring
Allen Hurns WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 24
–
JAX 21

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:07 TD HOU (12:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Jackson at JAX 42. 25-K.Jackson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – JAX 0
  • Q1 05:20 TD JAX (5:20) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 80-J.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – JAX 6
  • Q1 00:24 TD HOU (:24) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – JAX 7
  • Q2 05:21 FG JAX (5:21) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. HOU 14 – JAX 10
  • Q3 04:12 TD HOU (4:12) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 89-S.Anderson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – JAX 10
  • Q4 15:00 FG JAX (15:00) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman. HOU 21 – JAX 13
  • Q4 08:38 FG HOU (8:38) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 24 – JAX 13
  • Q4 02:25 TD JAX (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 15-A.Robinson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Simon]. HOU 24 – JAX 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 70%

    (9:05) 8-N.Novak 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 58%

    (5:21) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

    (1:11) 8-N.Novak 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 47%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Thomas.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 55%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Hopkins.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:03) 9-S.Lechler punts 47 yards to JAX 27, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 26 for -1 yards (34-T.Ervin). PENALTY on JAX-31-D.House, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at JAX 27.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 47%

    (9:20) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 28 for 12 yards (89-S.Anderson).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 80%

    (15:00) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%

    (8:38) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 20 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (6:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 27 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 27%

    (3:50) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.