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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.32 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model