Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 67

Houston Texans 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(6:14) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 13-R.Greene to JAX 28 for 12 yards (89-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model