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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 26

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.36 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP