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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 33

Houston Texans 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 8-N.Novak 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model