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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 48

Houston Texans 24 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.38 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP