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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 79

Washington Commanders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to MIN 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 33 for 5 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model