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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

MIN
33.8%
WAS
66.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.209 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN defense: -0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • WAS on 7 more days rest than MIN
  • WAS defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22
–
WAS 27
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Marcus Sherels CB Out Ankle
Linval Joseph DT Questionable Shoulder
Zac Kerin G Questionable Hand
Captain Munnerlyn CB Questionable Ankle
Laquon Treadwell WR Questionable Hamstring

WAS

DeSean Jackson WR Doubtful Shoulder
Duke Ihenacho S Questionable Concussion
Will Blackmon S Questionable Thumb
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
WAS 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:11 TD WAS (9:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 80-J.Crowder for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Hunter]. MIN 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 14:28 TD WAS (14:28) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 85-V.Davis for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 05:44 TD MIN (5:44) 78-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 44-M.Asiata right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – WAS 14
  • Q2 01:06 TD MIN (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – WAS 14
  • Q2 00:05 TD MIN (:05) 62-N.Easton reported in as eligible. 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – WAS 14
  • Q3 08:58 FG WAS (8:58) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 20 – WAS 17
  • Q3 00:43 FG WAS (:43) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 20 – WAS 20
  • Q4 09:38 FG WAS (9:38) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 20 – WAS 23
  • Q4 02:35 FG WAS (2:35) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 20 – WAS 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:32) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to WAS 31, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 32 for 1 yard (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 21%

    (4:24) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to WAS 9, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:09) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to WAS 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:40) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to MIN 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 33 for 5 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:46) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-S.Diggs.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (8:58) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:05) 18-J.Locke punts 44 yards to WAS 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 32 for 5 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 90%

    (:43) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:03) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to WAS 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 70%

    (9:38) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (2:35) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 17 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.76 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 78%

    (:11) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford sacked at WAS 42 for -14 yards (94-P.Smith).