4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 66

Washington Commanders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to MIN 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 14-S.Diggs.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model