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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 12

Washington Commanders 14 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model