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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 19

Washington Commanders 17 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(:43) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model