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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 57

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to WAS 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 57, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP