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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 10

Washington Commanders 23 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +4.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model