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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 28

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Washington Commanders 26

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford sacked at WAS 42 for -14 yards (94-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +2.52 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 28, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 38, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.76 EP