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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.74 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model