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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BAL
22.1%
DAL
77.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.235 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.330 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.072 EPA/dropback
  • BAL offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than DAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 9 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BAL

Crockett Gillmore TE Out Thigh
Alex Lewis T Out Ankle
Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Doubtful Thigh
Elvis Dumervil LB Doubtful Foot
Jimmy Smith CB Doubtful Back
Timmy Jernigan DT Questionable Shoulder
Kamalei Correa LB Questionable Thigh
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Thigh
Shareece Wright CB Questionable Thigh
Marshal Yanda G Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Barry Church S Out Forearm
Morris Claiborne CB Out Groin
Tony Romo QB Questionable Back
Dez Bryant WR Questionable Back
Chaz Green T Questionable Foot
Demarcus Lawrence DE Questionable Back
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 17
–
DAL 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:35 TD BAL (5:35) (Shotgun) 28-T.West left tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – DAL 0
  • Q2 06:01 TD DAL (6:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [57-C.Mosley]. PENALTY on BAL-57-C.Mosley, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BAL 7 – DAL 6
  • Q2 01:42 FG BAL (1:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 10 – DAL 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG DAL (:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. BAL 10 – DAL 10
  • Q3 07:37 TD DAL (7:37) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – DAL 16
  • Q4 11:37 TD DAL (11:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-D.Bryant for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a slant pattern. BAL 10 – DAL 23
  • Q4 08:21 TD BAL (8:21) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 89-S.Smith for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a slant pattern. BAL 16 – DAL 24
  • Q4 01:54 FG DAL (1:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. BAL 17 – DAL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to BAL 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 14-D.Hester to BAL 26 for no gain (16-V.Mayle).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 32%

    (10:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%

    (8:48) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to BAL 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-16-V.Mayle.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to BAL 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:29) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to DAL 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 37 for 21 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:23) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:41) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to DAL 38, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 38.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 81%

    (1:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (13:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 12 for 3 yards (50-A.McClellan).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (1:54) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.