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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 74

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to DAL 38, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 38.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model