4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 28

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP