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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:27) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to DAL 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.86 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model