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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model