4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(4:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to DAL 9, Center-46-M.Cox. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 12 for 3 yards (50-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.51 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP