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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 46

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to BAL 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.08 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model