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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to CIN 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model