Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- CIN defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- BUF defense: +0.004 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- Andy Dalton (CIN): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BUF on 7 more days rest than CIN
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 11
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:57 TD BUF (8:57) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – CIN 0
- Q1 02:38 TD CIN (2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 7 – CIN 6
- Q2 09:06 FG BUF (9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – CIN 6
- Q2 03:14 TD CIN (3:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – CIN 12
- Q3 10:30 FG BUF (10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – CIN 12
- Q4 12:08 FG BUF (12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – CIN 12
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:27) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 42 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 57-V.Rey). PENALTY on BUF-29-K.Seymour, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 35. {B. Tate receives 0 return yards due to penalty}
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to CIN 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%
(9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EPp(convert) 59% p(FG) 59%
(10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%
(8:18) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard. Penalty on BUF-27-J.Ihedigbo, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(6:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 46. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at BUF 44 for 10 yards (36-J.Meeks).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 38%
(5:23) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%
(14:22) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left guard to CIN 15 for 5 yards (55-V.Burfict; 31-D.Smith).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%
(12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(11:13) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 30 for 13 yards (33-R.Burkhead; 46-C.Harris). CIN-46-C.Harris was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%
(8:28) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to CIN 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-57-L.Alexander.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(7:26) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 19%
(5:44) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 20 for 13 yards (36-J.Meeks).
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Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 72 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62%
(4:26) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 38 for 20 yards (33-R.Burkhead).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 39 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 53% p(FG) 51%
(2:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 24 yards to CIN 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.
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