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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
49.7%
CIN
50.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.080 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF on 7 more days rest than CIN
  • Andy Dalton (CIN): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

BUF 24
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

BUF

Corbin Bryant DT Out Shoulder
Marcell Dareus DT Questionable Groin
Jerry Hughes LB Questionable Hand
Justin Hunter WR Questionable Groin
Walter Powell WR Questionable Hip
Robert Woods WR Questionable Foot

CIN

C.J. Uzomah TE Doubtful Calf
Wallace Gilberry DE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
CIN 12

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:57 TD BUF (8:57) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – CIN 0
  • Q1 02:38 TD CIN (2:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. BUF 7 – CIN 6
  • Q2 09:06 FG BUF (9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – CIN 6
  • Q2 03:14 TD CIN (3:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 10 – CIN 12
  • Q3 10:30 FG BUF (10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – CIN 12
  • Q4 12:08 FG BUF (12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – CIN 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:27) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 42 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 57-V.Rey). PENALTY on BUF-29-K.Seymour, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 35. {B. Tate receives 0 return yards due to penalty}

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to CIN 11, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 59%

    (10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (8:18) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard. Penalty on BUF-27-J.Ihedigbo, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 46. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at BUF 44 for 10 yards (36-J.Meeks).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 38%

    (5:23) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (14:22) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left guard to CIN 15 for 5 yards (55-V.Burfict; 31-D.Smith).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:13) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 30 for 13 yards (33-R.Burkhead; 46-C.Harris). CIN-46-C.Harris was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 43%

    (8:28) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to CIN 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-57-L.Alexander.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:26) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 19%

    (5:44) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 20 for 13 yards (36-J.Meeks).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (4:26) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 38 for 20 yards (33-R.Burkhead).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 51%

    (2:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 24 yards to CIN 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.