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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 74

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 42 for 7 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 57-V.Rey). PENALTY on BUF-29-K.Seymour, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 35. {B. Tate receives 0 return yards due to penalty}

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 74, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model