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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to BUF 1, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard. Penalty on BUF-27-J.Ihedigbo, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model