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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Shotgun) 35-M.Gillislee left guard to CIN 15 for 5 yards (55-V.Burfict; 31-D.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.53 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model