Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 30 for 13 yards (33-R.Burkhead; 46-C.Harris). CIN-46-C.Harris was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model