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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 39

Buffalo Bills 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 24 yards to CIN 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP